For the second straight season and the sixth time in the last decade, the top two seeds have advanced to the WNBA Finals. The New York Liberty dethroned the two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces in the semifinals, and as their reward, they will face the Commissioner’s Cup champion Minnesota Lynx in search of the first title in New York’s franchise history.
The Liberty have been to the finals five times prior, including three trips against the Houston Comets during the league’s first four seasons. Their combined record in those five appearances is 2-10, while the Lynx enter this series as the winningest franchise in WNBA playoff history, chasing a record fifth title.
Although Minnesota boasts the historical advantage, New York has to be considered the favorite in the present day. Breanna Stewart and Courtney Vandersloot are the lone players in this matchup to have won championships as key players on other title teams, while Lynx star Napheesa Collier won her first playoff series only this season. (Myisha Hines-Allen has a ring from her time in Washington but didn’t see the court during the 2019 finals.) The majority of the Liberty’s core, with the exception of Leonie Fiebich, advanced to the championship round last season, and it has the sense memory of what this stage feels like after experiencing a self-proclaimed “deer in the headlights” moment in a championship loss to the Aces.
And yet, Minnesota went 3-1 against New York during the calendar year, including a win in the Commissioner’s Cup final and a dominant performance in the final week of the regular season when the No. 1 seed was still in play. The Liberty need to look back only one year ago to know that a winning record entering the postseason (they were 3-2 against the Aces in 2023) doesn’t portend success in the finals. Yet, the Lynx will have confidence in this series, especially after besting the Connecticut Sun in five games.
It’s a tantalizing draw, one that will hopefully deliver just as the rest of this postseason has. Let’s take a closer look at what to focus on in this matchup.
How to watch
Game 1 at New York: 8 p.m. (ET) Thursday, Fubo, ESPN
Game 2 at New York: 3 p.m. Sunday, Fubo, ABC
Game 3 at Minnesota: 8 p.m. Wednesday, Fubo, ESPN
Game 4 at Minnesota (if necessary): 8 p.m. Friday, Oct. 18; Fubo, ESPN
Game 5 at New York (if necessary): 8 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 20; Fubo, ESPN
Napheesa Collier vs. Breanna Stewart
A new entrant has arrived in the conversation for the best player in the world, as Collier put herself at the table alongside Stewart and A’ja Wilson this season. Collier has a loaded individual resume like the others, including an NCAA title, Rookie of the Year award, four All-Star berths, two Olympic gold medals, and now a Defensive Player of the Year award. What she has been lacking is team success.
This is Collier’s chance to cement herself among the greats and prove that she can excel at the highest stages while carrying her team. During the four prior meetings in 2024, Collier’s box score stats didn’t jump off the page — she averaged 17.3 points and 10.3 rebounds per game (significantly below Stewart’s 24.8 and 14.3, respectively) — but the Lynx got the job done. Collier’s movement on offense has a gravity that creates openings for teammates, even if she isn’t the direct beneficiary. That being said, she is on a streak of three straight games of at least 25 points and 10 rebounds — the first player to do so in WNBA postseason history. She can also blow up actions on the other end, defending a variety of positions and holding up against bigger players in the lane.
Stewart has been on a roll of her own, shaking off an aberrant 2023 postseason to average 20 points, 8.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists in these playoffs to go along with some momentum-shifting defensive plays. The Liberty used her to guard just about everyone on the Aces in addition to her disruptive role as a help defender.
Collier and Stewart will have their hands full with one another. Even if their individual matchup won’t necessarily decide the series, it will be great theater to see these former college teammates, current Team USA teammates and future business partners with Unrivaled meet up on the biggest stage.
Will Minnesota continue to shoot the lights out?
Bridget Carleton and Kayla McBride have been veritable flamethrowers against the Liberty, combining to shoot 28-of-51 from 3-point range over the four games. Even for two players who shot above 40 percent during the regular season, that level of accuracy and volume is impressive — and one of the reasons New York conceded 83.3 points per game against Minnesota, about seven points above its season average.
The Liberty’s defense has been statistically worse during the postseason, but that’s partly from having to face Las Vegas four times in a row. New York is more versatile and switchable since its last meeting against the Lynx, and that’s a result of moving Fiebich into the starting lineup. Minnesota attacked Vandersloot relentlessly during the last regular-season meeting, forcing help and creating open 3-pointers. Fiebich should hold up better, even against the Lynx’s offense that boasts movement and intention. That should keep the Liberty out of rotation and avoid springing leaks at the 3-point line.
Minnesota is still capable of getting hot from distance — three players shot at least 40 percent from 3-point range during the regular season, and Alanna Smith trailed close behind at 39.8. However, the Lynx offense relies on creating great looks, not on individual players taking heat checks. If New York can stay more structurally sound on defense with its new lineup, Minnesota’s offensive firepower could diminish.
Can New York break through Minnesota’s congestion on defense?
The Lynx did a better job than any team this season defending Jonquel Jones. They surrounded her in the paint, preventing her from getting to her post-ups despite her size advantage on the Minnesota bigs. The Lynx also shut off Jones’ facilitating and throttled the Liberty’s offense as a result.
Liberty coach Sandy Brondello talked about Jones working through those struggles, perhaps by rolling with more speed to the rim, deliberately building the congestion to create more space for her teammates on the perimeter. Whatever the solution, New York needs a more active Jones — one who doesn’t take herself out of the game with offensive fouls when she gets a little desperate in the paint. In the Liberty’s lone win against Minnesota, she had 21 points, 12 rebounds and four assists. Her performance has the highest correlation with her team’s success.
If Jones isn’t the one to break the Lynx’s defense, then it will have to come through Ionescu. The New York guard talked about Las Vegas’ pressure defense in Game 3 resembling what she saw from Minnesota throughout the year, and Ionescu’s aggression dismantled the Aces in the ensuing contest. The Lynx have better defensive personnel, but if Ionescu has figured out the coverage, best of luck to the Minnesota guards who have to step up to Ionescu on ball screens to prevent 3s while also staying attached when she gets to her increasingly proficient floater.
New York can inflict many pressure points on a defense. The goal will be to get Jones going early, but Ionescu’s improvement during this postseason gives the Liberty additional options.
The pick
At the start of the postseason, I selected Minnesota to win it all against New York. However, the Liberty’s lineup change gives me more faith in their defense and their second unit. It usually takes a team a couple of tries to scale the mountaintop. New York has been here, and has home court and a rest advantage in Game 1. By the slightest of margins: Liberty in 5.
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(Photo of Napheesa Collier: David Berding / Getty Images)
