This is one of those groundhog weeks in pro tennis. Like the WTA 1000 that just ended in Beijing, the WTA 1000 that begins in Wuhan on Monday will be played on similar hard courts, and feature a similar field. The Top 7 seeds are identical, and so is the missing marquee name: Iga Swiatek. The differences are ones of quantity: Beijing had 96 players and lasted for two weeks; Wuhan, which hasn’t been held since pre-pandemic 2019, has 56 players and runs for the more traditional seven days.
Beijing ended with a somewhat surprising redemptive title run from Coco Gauff. Can she go back-to-back, or will someone else work herself into peak form by the end of this week? Here are five takeaways from the draw.
Aryna Sabalenka will try to pick up where she left off
You have to a be a true tennis junkie to remember it, but Sabalenka won the title in Wuhan the last two times it was held, beating the now-retired Anett Kontaveit in the 2018 final and the currently-inactive Alison Riske in 2019.
Perhaps more important than a three-peat, Sabalenka, who just had a 15-match win streak snapped in Beijing, has another chance to gain ground on the absent Swiatek in the race for the year-end No. 1 ranking. The seeds in her quarter are Emma Navarro, Beatriz Haddad Maia, and Donna Vekic.
We had the Summer of Coco in 2023. Will the fall belong to her in 2024?
Gauff tends to thrive with brand-new coaches. Last year, she hired Brad Gilbert and immediately won titles in D.C., Cincinnati, and at the US Open. Two weeks ago, she replaced Gilbert with Matt Daly and immediately won the WTA 1000 in Beijing.
Matching her 2023 run by winning in Wuhan and at the WTA Finals may be a bit much to ask. But she did find something close to her top form by the end of Beijing, and she won’t face a murderer’s row of opponents in Wuhan. Notable players in her quarter include Daria Kasatkina, Marta Kostyuk, Liuldmila Samsonova, and Amanda Anisimova.
After taking the title in a “practice” week in Beijing, what does Gauff have in store in Wuhan?
Zheng Qinwen will have a homecoming
China’s gold medalist packed the arena on her way to the semis in Beijing. If anything, the cheers should be even louder in Wuhan, where she trained as a junior.
Zheng comes in as the fifth seed, but she may be the favorite in a quarter that is led by No. 3 seed Jasmine Paolini, who hasn’t played her best on hard courts this year. The big obstacle may come earlier for Zheng, who could play the woman who beat her in Beijing, Karolina Muchova, in the round of 16.
What are the early-round matches to watch for?
Madison Keys vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia. The winner might play Navarro in the third round.
Vekic vs. Elise Mertens
Muchova vs. either Leylah Fernandez or Diana Shnaider in the second round
Paula Badosa, semifinalist in Beijing, vs. Ajla Tomljanovic, champion in Hong Kong
Muchova’s latest post-injury exploits included wins over Sabalenka and Zheng en route to the Beijing final.
Who is going to win?
As a two-time champion and top seed, Sabalenka is the obvious choice, but she suffered a total collapse in the final games against Muchova last week. Can she avoid something similar in Wuhan? Two Americans in her half, Gauff and Navarro, have had success against her in the past by coaxing her to implode.
In the bottom half, Zheng, Muchova, and Badosa would seem to be the top picks, judging by their Beijing form. But the No. 2 seed, Jessica Pegula, has had an excellent second half of the season, and would seem to have more strong results in her this year.
Semifinals: Sabalenka d. Gauff; Zheng d. Pegula
Final: Sabalenka d. Zheng
