The third round of a fantasy football draft is such a veritable wasteland that we invented third-round reversal to balance things out. The belief was that there was maybe one clean player who could sneak through with the No. 25 pick so you couldn’t give that AND the No. 1 overall pick to one team.
Making that manager who picks first also pick last in the third round was viewed as a handicap because there would never be an obvious pick, a totally clean, no-questions-asked player who slid all the way to pick No. 36.
But this year, Round 2 is the new Round 3. Maybe a player slips through who’s clean — Garrett Wilson, for example. Maybe there’s someone else you feel really good about, but I’ll disabuse you of that notion if you dare to read on. Survive the third round directives are replaced this year by “Survive the Second Round.”
Here are the players going in Round 2 this week in 150 NFFC drafts, in order:
- Jonathan Taylor, RB (Colts)
- Saquon Barkley, RB (Eagles)
- Kyren Williams, RB (Rams)
- Marvin Harrison Jr., WR (Cardinals)
- Chris Olave, WR (Saints)
- De’Von Achane, RB (Dolphins)
- Davante Adams, WR (Raiders)
- Travis Etienne, RB (Jaguars)
- Josh Allen, QB (Bills)
- Sam LaPorta, TE (Lions)
- Drake London, WR (Falcons)
- Nico Collins, WR (Texans)
I’m not going to turn this into a Hater’s Ball. That’s for Labor Day. I’m not quibbling even with the order. It’s just that none of these choices are great.
Taylor wasn’t better than Zack Moss last year. He gained 4.4 yards per carry to 4.3 for Moss. He’s missed 13 games the past two years. In Anthony Richardson, he has a totally unproven quarterback who, if he is successful, will run. A lot. And at 250 pounds, probably more like Josh Allen than Lamar Jackson. So the goal-line opportunities may be fleeting — it’s about 50/50 they will actually be a disaster.
Speaking of goal-line disasters, Barkley has been tush pushed into Round 2, but he’s no bargain there. He’s been ravaged by injuries, so the miles have been very hard. I’m not buying that the Eagles will move away from rugby football on the goal line given the retirement of Jason Kelce/Hurts’ knee issues last year. I mean, it’s their signature play despite being as gross as the Philly Cheesesteak, and we know Philly isn’t getting rid of those, either.
Okay, Williams I can get behind. But the Rams did draft a RB late in the third round. I’m not worried about Blake Corum being a viable committee back with Williams healthy, however. Sean McVay hates RB committees. Last year, Williams got everything. If he gets 80% of all the things we want, including his absurd 2023 goal-line equity, he’s a top five back.
I can’t pay full-blown retail for a rookie like Harrison Jr. on the hope he’ll be great. Plus, I don’t believe in Kyler Murray. In fact, I think he stinks. Look at that disgusting YPA last year (24th, below average for his career). He has a ton of trouble throwing effectively over the middle because he’s too short. That makes this passing offense easier to defend. Harrison has to drag Murray, not vice versa. It’s possible, but he’s a fourth-round pick for me.
Olave has QB issues, TD issues, usage issues (his average depth of target is too high) that create efficiency problems. If your second-round receiver’s best attribute is running No. 9 on the route tree, do you want his QB to be Derek Carr? I think Olave, just 24 this year, has a chance to be a winning player. I’d definitely take him over Harrison. But I see red flags.
I feel like your mom warning you about obvious things, but you don’t want to pay a premium price for a running back on a team with another back who scored 18 rushing TDs last year. You’re betting on unreal per-touch efficiency. Yes, Achane got that last year, but it’s likely to regress. The argument that Raheem Mostert had a career year and is 32 is not very persuasive when that career year was at age 31. Why not just draft Mostert six rounds later?
Adams has the worst QB situation in the league. We’re praying Gardner Minshew (and his 3.1% TD percentage from last year) is Adams’ QB. Adams is also old — age 32 season — but that’s 10% of my issue with him. He also has a head coach whose objective every week is to reach a threshold of rushing attempts, thinking that wins games rather than being merely correlated with winning.
Etienne is being taken a round early. And I just hate reaching for running backs. I don’t think the Jaguars are remotely committed to Etienne as a bell cow, which means he’ll need peak Alvin Kamara efficiency to be a winning pick. To break even at cost, he’ll need the Jaguars offense to dramatically improve.
Josh Allen is a QB. What problem does he solve in one-QB leagues? None. He survives the round for you but you’re going to feel a player short the entire draft.
I’m the “elite TE” all-time champ. At least when it was Travis Kelce. But I feel we’re elevating LaPorta only because Kelce is old. I won’t argue with downgrading Kelce. But I have to firmly believe a TE is going to get 1,000 yards receiving before I even think about a second-round pick. He has to equal at top 10 WR. LaPorta is going to need last year’s insane target volume and then some to have a chance. So he’s a third/fourth-round turn guy, to me.
We don’t know if London is good. We certainly don’t know he’s bad given his lack of QB play. But we know London is not great — in other words, unable to perform at a top level no matter who his QB is. The problem with London is that, if he’s a bust, he’d be performing exactly as he has been. I think Kirk Cousins is a top thrower. If I had to bet, I’d bet London will be good, maybe very good. Getting London at the back end of Round 2 is fine. I can’t strike up the band though.
Collins is a player I believe in with a QB who was great as a rookie. I think he’s the best receiver on the Texans. So what’s the problem? Stefon Diggs, a diva who psychologically needs to be the most-targeted receiver on the team. Have his skills degraded to the point where he can’t be? Maybe. To the extent it’s obvious to him? No way. So I think Collins is basically going to be forced into more of a secondary/1A role, at best.
(Top photo of Nico Collins: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY)
