After defeating Frances Tiafoe in five sets, Taylor Fritz is one win away from being the first American man to win a Grand Slam title since Andy Roddick in 2003. But if Fritz is going to snap the streak, he’s going to have to beat the world No. 1. And while I do think the crowd will give Fritz some extra juice, it’s hard to imagine him actually winning this match. I’m also not even sure we’ll see him win two sets.

When poring over the options available for this final, the one that stuck out to me was for Jannik Sinner to cover a 1.5-set spread. The Italian has already had to deal with a pro-American crowd in this tournament, as he faced Tommy Paul just a couple of rounds ago. Paul took advantage of the atmosphere, opening up a double-break lead on Sinner in the opening set. However, instead of panicking, Sinner ended up locking in and playing some tremendous tennis. Home-court advantage will not be enough to help Fritz here—he’ll simply need to play brilliantly.

Sinner has a higher hold percentage than Fritz, who has a game that is very much built around a big serve. He is also a far better returner. When you combine all of that with Sinner’s advantages from both the forehand and backhand wings, as well has his superior movement, point construction and net play, it’s hard to see a path for a Fritz keeping this close.

Sinner beat Fritz in Indian Wells last year, which came before he really kicked things into gear and became one of the best players on the planet. Now, Sinner is 38-2 on hard courts in 2024, and the only thing that can really get in his own way is his health. The story of an American finally breaking through at a major—on home soil—is enticing, but the best bet (besides this one) is to keep your emotions out of it.