Recently, we’ve looked at (now) former Golden State Warriors shooting guard Klay Thompson, and we’ve revisited the legacy of (now) former Warriors point guard Chris Paul. Today we’re going to examine Golden State icon Stephen Curry, a point guard better known for his shooting prowess than anything else. Curry will be 37 years old by the time the upcoming season ends next spring, and that’s kind of old for the NBA.

As discussed many times previously in context to other overhyped players, Curry is a rare kind of shooter: a really great one. He sits sixth all time in league history for True Shooting Percentage, and he is 15th currently all time for Effective Field Goal Percentage. The only guys above him on the TSP list are centers or power forwards, thanks to shorter shots and higher-percentage conversion realities. He is unique there.

On the eFG list, it’s pretty much the same story for the same reason(s). Curry has transcended a lot of assumptions about guard play in the league, although the Top 25 for TSP has a few more famous backcourt names on it, too: Kevin Durant, Reggie Miller, James Harden, Magic Johnson, John Stockton, etc. You can the company Curry keeps—and exceeds—on a list like this one. He’s had an amazing career so far.

Looking at Player Efficiency Rating and Win Shares per 48 Minutes, as well, shows us more about Curry’s greatness: Curry is 20th on the all-time PER list, and he is 27th on the all-time WS/48 list. Last week, we covered the No. 1 guy on both lists, of course, and looked at a group of top elite players in league history. Curry wasn’t in that discussion, but throwing in his shooting prowess is key to assessing his all-time value.

If he isn’t on an all-time starting five, he is certainly going to be in the regular rotation for such a roster. He is not a one-dimensional player, as the PER and WS/48 rankings demonstrate, even if the rest of his game doesn’t match the shooting greatness. And honestly, how could it? That would be unreasonable to expect, and we don’t want to focus on what Curry “cannot” do on the court, because he can do a lot of things well.

So, he can’t block shots … ho hum. His career averages of 24.8 ppg, 6.4 apg, 4.7 rpg, and 1.5 spg show he has been amazing on both ends of the court for a long time. Yet back to our primary question here: how much longer will he play? Take the current age (36) and consider the 6 different times his Warriors teams played in the NBA Finals, and that adds a literal full season of extra games to his legs. So add one year there, right?

Toss in the fact he missed most of the 2019-2020 season with an injury, playing in just 5 games that season. The recovery from such injuries takes some juice out of the body, too, even if games are not being played. Thus, there’s no “refund” on that missed here, either, as rehabilitation is just as taxing as actual play. In fact, Curry’s injuries have cost him, on average, about 18 games per regular season since he joined the NBA.

He’s never played more than 80 games in a season, and he’s only reached 75 games six times—the last time coming in the 2016-2017 season. Load management for him became a real thing a long time ago, thanks to ankle weakness, etc. No one is perfect, although all these details add up to wear and tear on the body, which is already 36 years old but probably closer to 38 years old in terms of NBA physicality and needed toughness.

Curry is signed for the next two years, which is key. He’s not going to walk away from $120M or so, is he? No matter what he can make off the court, we suspect—barring a serious injury—that Curry will play through to the end of the contract, at least. That would make him 38 years old at that point … and closer to 40 in NBA years. Obviously, modern medical treatments (honest ones, even) can extend careers longer than before.

What are his motivations? Another title? That probably isn’t going to happen, given the state of the NBA and the Warriors roster. The franchise can talk all it wants to about trying, and it did the right thing in letting Thompson walk. However, when we think of the team winning 73 games in 2015-2016 to set that single-season win record, Golden State is a long ways away from that kind of roster management. Truly.

Last season, Curry shot just 45 percent from the field: his second-lowest mark for a full season ever, after the 2021-2022 season. What does it say that his two “worst” seasons have come in the last three years? Likewise, his three-point conversion rate was the second worst of his career for a full season, again trailing only that same 2021-2022 season. These are signs of age, fatigue, grind, and slowing down, without doubt.

We’re going to put the over/under, therefore, for how much longer he plays at 1.5 seasons, because we see a plausible scenario where the team once again fails to make the Top 8 in the Western Conference in 2024-2025, and Curry himself has another “aging” season with mediocre shooting percentages. He’s a proud guy, as he should be, and perhaps he decides the last year of his deal is not worth the damage to his psyche.

Throw in the Olympics this summer—more games to add wear and tear to the aging body—and we think it’s even money that this upcoming NBA season may be Curry’s last.