Novak Djokovic’s chances of securing a spot in the season-ending ATP Finals are uncertain, as Casper Ruud, Andrey Rublev, Alex de Minaur, Grigor Dimitrov, and Tommy Paul all strive to unseat the 24-time Grand Slam winner at the Paris Masters after the Serb chose not to defend his title at Bercy.

The top eight players in the world are scheduled to compete at the ATP Finals from November 10-17 at the Palaolimpico in Turin, and Djokovic faces the risk of being overtaken, as several competitors are vying for positions and the opportunity to earn crucial points.

Recently, Djokovic reached the finals of the Shanghai Masters, where he was defeated by Jannik Sinner in straight sets, 7-6(4) 6-3.

Unusually Barren Year

Djokovic’s only title this year came from winning a Gold Medal at the Summer Olympics. His win-loss record stands at 37-46, which includes a runner-up finish at Wimbledon, a semifinal slot at the Australian Open, and a quarterfinal showing at the French Open before he had to withdraw due to a knee injury.

Although his season hasn’t been outstanding, Djokovic is among the top eight players likely to qualify for the ATP Finals. He is currently sixth in the Race to Turin, trailing Taylor Fritz, but his withdrawal from the Paris Masters, a 1,000-point event, adds further uncertainty to his chances of qualification.

How Novak Djokovic can Qualify for the ATP Finals

Djokovic is in sixth place in the Race to Turin with 3,910 points. His closest competitor, Casper Ruud, is only 55 points behind. Ruud needs to only win his second-round match in Paris this week (he has a first-round bye) to pass the Serbian.

Andrey Rublev, who made it to the quarterfinals of the Swiss Indoors in Basel, is 190 points behind Djokovic and could threaten his position. If the Russian reaches the semifinals in Paris, he’ll pass Djokovic. Alex de Minaur’s recent semifinal performance at the Vienna Open has greatly boosted his qualification opportunities. With a 355-point gap behind Djokovic, he also needs to reach the semifinals to pass Djokovic, by a mere five points.

While Djokovic holds an advantage over Ruud, De Minaur, and Rublev, his challengers’ narrow point margins and impressive performances make his qualification precarious.

Others May Determine Qualification

For Djokovic to secure a spot in the ATP Finals, he must rely on De Minaur, Rublev, and Ruud, not performing well at the Paris Masters. If all of the trio reaches the semifinals in Bercy, Djokovic will drop to ninth place, outside the qualification range. Conversely, Djokovic would be positioned to compete in the ATP Finals if none of them reach their targets.

World No. 1 Jannik Sinner, along with Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, and Daniil Medvedev, have already earned a place in year-end championships. American No. 1 Taylor Fritz also has a significant edge over those chasing him and is expected to secure his berth in Turin.

As the Paris Masters begin on Monday, the leading players will be looking to bring their best performances in a final effort to qualify for the ATP Finals.

While Grigor Dimitrov, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Tommy Paul still have a slim chance of qualifying this year, they would need to win the Paris Masters to pass Djokovic.

Serbia Path?

It’s important to note that Novak Djokovic could participate in the Serbia Open in Belgrade next week. If he remains within 200 points of qualifying for the Turin Finals, a victory in that event could guarantee his spot. Of course, other contenders could also try to play that week to boost their point totals. The Serbia Open is set to commence on November 3, but the immediate focus lies on the Paris Masters.