For the second straight year, the year-end No.1 will be decided in the final week of the Hologic WTA Tour season, with Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek’s rivalry set to culminate at the WTA Finals Riyadh.

Like last year, Sabalenka will go in as the reigning World No.1. In 2023, she held a 630-point lead over Swiatek ahead of the  Cancun and could have secured the year-end No.1 by reaching the final with two group-stage wins. However, Swiatek pipped her at the post, winning her first WTA Finals title with an unbeaten 5-0 record, including a semifinal win against Sabalenka.

This year, Australian Open and US Open champion Sabalenka’s lead is heftier after her first two-Slam season. She will go into Riyadh with a 1,046-point advantage over Swiatek, meaning the Polish player has to defend her title in order to have a chance at the year-end top spot.

Road to the WTA Finals: Sabalenka | Swiatek | Gauff | Paolini

And even the title might not be enough for Swiatek. Sabalenka can secure the year-end No.1 as early as the group stage of the tournament. An unbeaten 3-0 record in the round robin would seal it. Even if Sabalenka wins only one or two round-robin matches, she will still be guaranteed the year-end No.1 — if she subsequently reaches the final.

If Swiatek falters in the group stage, though, Sabalenka might not even need to make the semifinals. If Swiatek loses one round-robin match, Sabalenka needs to win two to end 2024 as No.1. If Swiatek loses two round-robin matches, Sabalenka can seal it with a single match win.

It’s undoubtedly advantage Sabalenka — but then, that was the case in 2023 as well.

A full table of scenarios is below.