After beating Daniil Medvedev in the quarterfinals, world No. 1 Jannik SInner is now an overwhelming favorite to win the US Open. But Sinner’s semifinal opponent, Jack Draper, hasn’t lost a single set in this tournament. That’s especially impressive considering the Brit just faced Alex de Minaur in the quarterfinals.

Draper isn’t going to roll over and let Sinner breeze into the final. I actually like Draper’s chances of making this competitive, and my best bet is on Over 34.5 games.

Draper is one of the most talented players in tennis. He has just had a lot of trouble staying healthy, and his conditioning has been an issue throughout his career. The 22-year-old recently said that he is “all in” on his tennis career now, and we are really seeing that in 2024. He’s having a career year in terms of total wins and winning percentage, and he won his first career ATP title in Stuttgart a couple of months ago.

Draper’s ability to serve is what makes me believe he can keep this match within reach. Like Sinner, Draper hasn’t served particularly well at this tournament, but he has come up with big holds when it matters. And this feels like a match in which both players can take care of their service games.

Draper is also a better returner than he is given credit for. He is capable of making returns and quickly resetting points, which is why I think he’s live to win a set in this match. I wouldn’t take the Over unless that was the case. However, I do like the fact that this Over can potentially win with a straight-set Sinner victory. A tiebreaker or two would make that very possible, and I don’t think you can rule that out.

The only thing to be concerned about here is Draper’s hamstring. He had it taped in his last match, and the tournament organizers decided to put this match on before the Frances Tiafoe vs. Taylor Fritz match. That means less time to recover. But Draper played well after the injury, as it forced him to focus on his serve-and-volley game. So, even if he hasn’t fully recovered, I still think he can serve well enough to help cash this bet.